קולוקוויום בחוג לגאופיזיקה: The future response of atmospheric waves to anthropogenic emissions: scale dependence and the role of the ocean
Rei Chemke, Weizmann inst.
Mid-latitude atmospheric waves control most of the weather and climate variability on Earth, by affecting winds, temperature and precipitation. It thus critical to accurately assess the response of atmospheric waves to anthropogenic emissions, in order to improve our preparedness to future weather and climate changes. However, most previous studies have analyzed the projected changes in mid-latitude atmospheric waves by pooling across waves with different scales, thus not accounting for the fact that the waves' climate impacts might vary with scale. Here we show that while large waves will get stronger, small waves will get weaker by the end of this century. Thus, investigating the response of atmospheric waves to human activity by pooling across all wave scales masks the different future climate impacts of large and small waves. Finally, we quantify the role of ocean coupling, and its dynamic (i.e., ocean heat transport processes) and thermodynamic (i.e., surface heat fluxes) components, in the future intensification of the waves over the North Atlantic and their poleward shift over the Southern Ocean. We show that ocean heat transport processes are responsible for the future intensification of North Atlantic waves, as they overcome the effect of surface heat fluxes to weaken the waves by the end of this century. In contrast, surface heat fluxes act to shift the waves poleward in the Southern Hemisphere, as they overcome the effect of ocean heat transport to shift the waves equatorward. These results stress the importance of better monitoring oceanic processes to improve climate change adaption strategies.
מארגני האירוע: ד"ר רועי ברקן וד"ר אסף ענבל