קולוקוויום בחוג לגאופיזיקה: Recent progress and challenges in Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP)
Dr. Yoav Levi, Israel Meteorological Survey (IMS)
During the last decades, substantial progress in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modelling and the description of physical processes have been achieved. Convection-permitting regional models with resolutions of 3 to 1 km are standard in all developed national meteorological services. Moore's Law (1965) states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years, though the cost of computers is halved. As doubling model resolution requires 2^3 computer resources, if the model scales ideally, the model resolution needs to double every 6 years. As more levels are added and more processes are explicitly solved, 10 years may be more realistic. However, several tests to increase resolutions from the current ~2 km to ~0.5 km did not improve substantially the forecast quality. The efforts to enhance the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model resolution and performance within the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) will be presented.
מארגן האירוע: ד"ר רועי ברקן